It's been a challenging two years since the world was urged to bid farewell to fossil fuels. As we approach the end of another year, some Australians are focused on festive cheer or beach holidays, while others grapple with the looming threat of extreme weather events. The reality is, two states are already battling devastating bushfires.
With temperatures soaring, it's no surprise that records are set to tumble. This is the new normal when average temperatures are 1.5°C hotter than a century ago.
Logic dictates that Australia's political leaders should prioritize tackling the country's reliance on fossil fuels, the primary driver of this climate crisis. Yet, it's been two years since Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen declared the end of the fossil fuel era, and progress has been slow.
The recent Cop30 summit in Brazil saw Australia sign up to its strongest declaration yet, committing to rapid action on fossil fuels to curb global heating. So, what does this mean for Australia's domestic policies? Well, not much has changed regarding its world-leading coal and gas export industries.
Change is evident in the country's power grid, with renewable energy contributing nearly 50% of electricity in the past week, surpassing coal-fired generation. However, the pace of this transition is uncertain, and resistance remains.
A recent report by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) highlighted the need for accelerated investment in grid security as aging coal plants close. It suggested that the Eraring coal station, the country's oldest, might need an extension if synchronous generators weren't connected in time.
Some media outlets sensationalized this report, warning of blackouts if Eraring shut down in 2027. The message was clear: don't shut down fossil fuels. But the report's emphasis was on the urgent need for investment in grid security and the potential necessity of a short coal plant extension if progress was too slow.
In essence, change is inevitable, and we must act now. This message is echoed by scientists, investors, industries, civil society, and international agencies. Yet, in an environment struggling to envision a future beyond fossil fuels, it often falls on deaf ears.
Australia's largest contribution to the climate crisis is its coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which remain unchecked. The country is second only to Indonesia in shipping thermal coal and rivals the US and Qatar as the biggest LNG seller. It's also the largest exporter of metallurgical coal used in steelmaking.
Since the landmark Paris climate agreement in 2015, Australia has not reduced this footprint; instead, it has accelerated its expansion. A recent report by Oil Change International found Australia led the world in expanding its oil and gas industries between 2015 and 2024, increasing production by a staggering 77%.
On coal, Australia is shipping more thermal coal than a decade ago, and the Albanese government has approved numerous fossil fuel developments and expansions, primarily for export. Some government officials seem to believe these exports can continue indefinitely, ignoring the scientific advice that reaching net zero emissions requires deep cuts and limited offsets.
The reality is, if the world is to successfully combat climate change, the techniques used to create offsets, primarily related to tree planting and vegetation protection, will be crucial in removing historic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as part of a "negative emissions" program.
If Australia has an ethical responsibility to act on climate change, the science should be enough. But the more compelling political argument for doing more to prepare for the end of fossil fuel exports is economic.
Treasury modelling predicts a 50% crash in the value of coal and gas exports over the next five years, regardless of domestic emission cuts. It forecasts a 42-51% drop in coal exports and a 25% decline in LNG exports over the next decade.
Despite the efforts of US, Saudi Arabia, and Russian leaders, most countries are preparing for a future less reliant on fossil fuels. A report by Climate Resource suggests that if countries meet their targets, the decline of Australia's coal export industry could be even faster than Treasury predicts. It found that demand for Australia's thermal coal, mostly from NSW, could fall by 64% or more over the next decade, while the metallurgical coal industry in Queensland could reduce output by at least 28%.
China and India are likely to reduce coal imports first, allowing their domestic industries a more gradual decline. South Korea, Australia's fourth-largest thermal coal market, has already signaled its exit, joining the "Powering Past Coal Alliance" and pledging to shut all coal plants by 2040.
Climate Resource's Dr. Anita Talberg urges Australia to manage economic risks, support fossil fuel communities through this transition, and expand its commitment to green industries. Her warning echoes the scientists' message after the recent bushfires in NSW and Tasmania: "The worst thing we can do is not prepare."
Get ready to hear this message loud and clear in the coming year.
