Sanctions? What sanctions? Despite facing restrictions from the EU and the U.S., Russia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) is finding a booming market in China. Let's dive into how this is happening and what it means for the global energy landscape.
According to data from Kpler, cited by Reuters, Russia's Novatek exported a whopping 21 cargoes of LNG to China last year from its Arctic LNG 2 facility. This facility, it's worth noting, is under strict EU and U.S. sanctions. But that's not all. Another LNG cargo made its way to China from Gazprom’s Portovaya facility, which is also under Western sanctions. China's state-owned companies, CNPC and CNOOC, hold a 10% stake each in Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2, which could explain part of the story.
And this is where things get interesting. Russia's total LNG exports to China in 2025 reached an all-time high, defying the sanctions. Specifically, September saw a doubling of flows compared to the previous year, reaching 1.6 million tons compared to 751,000 tons. Novatek alone is estimated to have sold over 1 million tons of LNG from Arctic LNG 2 to China between June and November. Cargo loading really picked up speed since August, with reports of numerous LNG carriers in transit, loaded with gas from the Gydan Peninsula.
The surge in Russian LNG shipments comes at a time when China's demand for the super-chilled fuel has softened somewhat. For most of 2025, imports were down compared to 2024. However, towards the end of the year, things picked up, showing solid annual increases. In November, LNG imports into China jumped by 13.6% year-on-year to 6.94 million tons, and early data suggested even higher flows in December, reaching 7.17 million tons. These increases followed a year of declining LNG imports. Several factors contributed to this, including softer demand, a rise in domestic natural gas production, and increased pipeline gas imports, especially from Russia, via the Power of Siberia pipeline. Overall, Chinese LNG imports for 2025 are expected to be lower than in 2024, when imports were boosted by efforts to fill gas storage facilities.
But here's where it gets controversial... This situation raises several questions. Is China's increasing reliance on sanctioned Russian LNG a sign of shifting geopolitical alliances? Does this trade undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions? And what are the long-term implications for the global energy market?
What are your thoughts? Do you see this as a strategic move by China, or something else entirely? Share your perspective in the comments below!
