The College Football Playoff: Are Blowouts the New Normal? The recent College Football Playoff games have sparked a heated debate: are we witnessing a predictable pattern of lopsided victories when Power Four (P4) teams clash with Group of Five (G5) teams? This isn't just about a few bad games; it's a trend that's reshaping the very essence of college football.
Published December 21, 2025, the first round of the College Football Playoff delivered a familiar script. While the P4 matchups were closely contested, the G5 teams faced a different reality – heavy defeats. James Madison put up a fight, but Oregon was already in control, highlighting the disparity in talent and resources.
But here's where it gets controversial... Online discussions often miss the point. Blowouts happen, even in the NFL. However, they are statistically more likely to occur when a G5 team faces a P4 opponent. Over the past decade, P4 teams have dominated G5 teams, winning over 80% of the time. This includes games against programs like Purdue and Arkansas, demonstrating the significant talent gap.
Imagine two evenly matched teams playing 100 times. Most games would be close, with blowouts being rare. Now, replace one of those teams with an undermanned G5 school. The odds shift dramatically. Blowouts become the expectation, with the G5 team's chances of keeping it close or winning slim.
And this is the part most people miss... The issue isn't about blaming JMU or Tulane for participating; it's about the system itself. Many argue for playoff expansion, but the evidence suggests the opposite. The inclusion of G5 teams often leads to predictable outcomes, as these schools struggle to compete with the resources and talent of their P4 counterparts.
The transfer portal and NIL deals were intended to level the playing field, but they've largely turned G5 schools into feeder programs for the big boys. Tulane's coach, Jon Sumrall, had to replace 60 players on his 85-man roster. The quarterback, Darian Mensah, was poached by Duke for an estimated $8 million over three years. This makes it increasingly difficult for lower-tier schools to win consistently.
This isn't about being anti-G5; it's about acknowledging the reality of competitive imbalance. P4 schools have a significant advantage in resources and talent, creating a situation where it often feels like two different games are being played. Ignoring these facts won't change the outcome. It's not disrespectful to G5 schools; it's simply the truth.
What do you think? Do you agree that the current system is flawed, or do you believe G5 teams have a fair chance? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
