A devastating turn of events has unfolded in Yemen, bringing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a direct and unprecedented confrontation. This crisis threatens to tear the country apart and has the potential to ignite a larger regional conflict.
Both Gulf nations have historically intervened in Yemen's civil war, backing the internationally recognized government. However, a recent fracture in their alliance has led to a complex situation where they now support rival groups on the ground.
The UAE-backed forces declared a "war" on Friday, accusing Saudi-backed troops of launching an attack, accompanied by air strikes from the Saudi air force. This escalation has sent shockwaves through the region.
Yemen's civil war, which began in 2014, has already plunged the nation into a deadly conflict and one of the world's most severe hunger crises. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels initially seized control of most of northern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa. In 2015, a coalition of Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, intervened to restore the government's rule.
A ceasefire with the Houthis had de-escalated the conflict in recent years, but tensions have now shifted to the southern front.
The Saudi-backed ruling coalition, known as the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022 to unite anti-Houthi factions, has started to unravel. Meanwhile, the vast majority of southern Yemen has fallen under the control of UAE-backed separatists, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is formally part of the coalition.
On December 2nd, the STC, which seeks an independent state in the south, launched a major military offensive in the eastern part of the country, swiftly capturing territory from government forces. This included the oil-rich Hadramawt province, which borders Saudi Arabia.
The STC justified its offensive as necessary to "restore stability" in the south. However, the head of the PLC, Rashad al-Alimi, denounced it as a "rebellion," warning that the STC's separatist push could fracture Yemen and plunge the region into chaos.
Tensions escalated further with air strikes from the Saudi-led coalition. On Friday, seven people were killed in an air strike on an STC military camp in Hadramawt, according to an STC official. This followed air strikes on Tuesday in the southern port of Mukalla, where the coalition accused the UAE of delivering two ships loaded with military equipment to the separatists over the weekend.
The UAE foreign ministry denied these allegations, stating that the shipment did not contain weapons and that the vehicles were intended for use by Emirati forces in Yemen.
Following the strikes, the head of Yemen's Presidential Council announced the cancellation of a joint defense treaty with the UAE and ordered all Emirati forces to leave the country within 24 hours. The Saudi foreign ministry supported this call, accusing the UAE of pressuring the STC to launch the offensive, which has now reached Saudi Arabia's borders. The ministry warned that Saudi Arabia's national security was a "red line."
The UAE denied involvement in the STC's military campaign but, to the surprise of many, agreed to withdraw its forces from Yemen shortly after.
The UAE's support for the STC in Yemen is seen as a strategy to secure access to key sea ports and challenge an Islamist party within the government. However, Farea al-Muslimi, a researcher at Chatham House, argues that even if the UAE fully withdraws its physical presence, it "won't change anything" and won't signify a retreat by the STC forces it backs.
"The UAE hasn't maintained a significant troop presence in Yemen since 2019. They've relied on special forces and mostly their network of proxies working directly on the ground," explains Mr. Muslimi.
In the newly contested areas like Hadramawt, families are alarmed by the prospect of a wider conflagration. Mohamed, a resident of Mukalla, shares his concerns: "Some people are considering moving to villages or staying with relatives if things get worse. But most people don't really have the option to leave the city."
"Most people are going out less and have stored some goods like flour and rice. Everyone is closely following the news, moment by moment."
Yemen's economy has been ravaged by years of conflict, and its roughly 40 million people have endured what aid agencies describe as the world's third worst hunger crisis. In 2021, the UN estimated that 377,000 people had died as a result of the conflict and its impact on hunger and healthcare, with 259,000 of those deaths being children under the age of five.
While the current conflict is being portrayed as a proxy war between two Gulf powers, those closely watching Yemeni politics have anticipated the STC's recent escalations. The STC's ambitions have grown following its expansion of control over nearly all of southern Yemen, according to Yemeni affairs journalist Anwar al-Ansi.
Mr. Muslimi adds, "[STC chief Aidarous] Al-Zubaidi has been the most consistent person inside Yemen, consistently demanding independence for southern Yemen. So, no, I don't think he will give up."
Anwar al-Tamimi, a spokesperson for the STC, confirmed their aspirations in an interview with the BBC: "Our intentions have always been clear for years, and that is to establish an independent state. We haven't tried to fool anyone."
"It's the right of the people of the south to choose their fate, unfortunately, many in the region have tried to stand in our way."
He denied that independence would pose a threat to Saudi Arabia's national security, stating, "We will have stability and won't be a source of terrorism that threatens them."
Whether these assurances will prevent Saudi-backed forces from attempting to regain control of southern Yemen remains uncertain. Mr. Muslimi believes that "the UAE and Saudi Arabia cannot and will not be able to agree in Yemen. They have a very different logic on the ground."
"Saudi has 1,500km of border with Yemen while the UAE has zero. Imagine having the UK and France going directly into a war with each other - that is the same way I think about the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They are rich and powerful countries with lots of weapons, and it's very bad for the whole region."
This crisis in Yemen has the potential to escalate further, with regional implications that could be devastating. The situation highlights the complex dynamics and competing interests at play, leaving the future of Yemen hanging in the balance.
